Who ever thought that a devastating hurricane would cause a real estate boom?

SW FL. OK After Hurricane and PandemicSage Communities CEO: “Who ever thought a devastating hurricane would cause a real estate boom?Ian’s hardest-hit barrier islets are hot spots.

According to a recent article in Florida Weekly – Three prominent Southwest Florida real estate experts say the future is bright, but it relies on percentages, pricing, and politics, which we can’t control.

LSI Companies creator and Sage Communities CEO Randy Thibaut calls them the three “Ps.” Percentages are interest rates. Politics refers to state and national political instability, while pricing is real estate cost.

Perspective is our fourth “P.”

Thibaut, Denny Grimes, residential real estate expert and president of Denny Grimes & Team at Keller Williams Realty, and Justin Thibaut, Randy’s son and CEO of LSI Companies, presented the facts and their perspectives on what the three “P”s might or might not bring us as we emerge from the COVID pandemic and move forward from Hurricane Ian, Southwest Florida’s biggest natural disaster.

So the way is uncertain. Southwest Florida people are resilient and determined to survive.

Market Trends, held recently at the Caloosa Sound Convention Center in Fort Myers, had the topic “The Future Ain’t What It Used to Be.”

“The pandemic and hurricane would devastate the market. Randy Thibaut stated. He said Florida had a “open for business policy” and allowed people to evade COVID-19 restrictions.

Grimes said using Zoom to interact with homebound workers freed you from your desk. Southwest Florida retirees just moved early.

Thibaut called Hurricane Ian “the elephant in the room” when discussing the home market. Who would have thought a catastrophic storm would boost real estate?He said the real estate market is best on barrier islands, which were hardest hit.

He said “vulture buyers” bought up what was left shortly after the hurricane. “Now the vultures are in a feeding frenzy,” he said, paying much more for homes. He thinks the craze will continue.

Who could picture a Fort Myers Beach clean slate?Thibaut asked. “Nothing’s impossible.”

He envisions Fort Myers Beach’s “renaissance and rebirth” as an upscale town attracting a new demographic. Fort Myers Beach is loved by many. He said it must alter because it must be rebuilt. “Some owners are saying, ‘I’ll never sell,'” he said. “They haven’t received the right offer.”

Thibaut said multi-million-dollar homes. Is the beach town government capable? Are they ready for the huge wave?He suggested Lee County assist. “Not for amateurs.”

He said Sanibel and Captiva are facing a stronger storm wave. He said people are buying unharmed homes to redevelop. Custom makers have many options.

“Developers and builders are pounding their fists” for building permits, he said. Since Ian, county staff have processed 35,000 passes. Mostly storm repair permits.

Builders and laborers are also hesitant due to uncertain conditions. 7% interest rates. “From 3.5% to 7% is a big difference,” he said. Buyers are outbid. Since rates are 7%, buyers at 3.5% are hanging on.

Political unrest follows.

When percentages, price, and politics align, “I’m pretty confident we’ll go from a normal market to a bat-shit crazy market.”

Grimes showed residential real estate market data.

The usual sale price for a single-family home in Lee County was $89,000 in 2009, when the housing bubble burst. In 2019, it cost $249,000, up 180%. The price rose 67% to $416,000 by 2022. Price has increased over 340% since the bubble broke in 2009. He said Lee County’s median sell price is $430,000.

Lee, Collier, and Charlotte counties had median single-family home prices of $416,250, $775,000, and $389,450, respectively, in 2022.

Grimes predicted that Hurricane Ian would hurt the market more than the rest of the state, but Lee and Collier counties excelled.

He said position, location, location is no longer the mantra. Accessibility and elevation. Babcock Ranch and Ave Maria sold best in 2022.

Grimes said mortgage rates jumped last year. He predicts rising interest rates. 3% loan rates will never return. It’s still a seller’s market, but not at the level where a vendor says “Jump” and a buyer says “How high?”He said.

“Buy when sellers fear tomorrow will be worse than today,” he said.

Grimes said natural disasters never destroy markets. Water, warmth, and lifestyle remain popular. Man-made tragedies are more dangerous. What distinguishes an Ohio train accident from a Southwest Florida toxic green algae bloom?he asked. He warned that environmental neglect would reduce market demand.

Justin Thibaut predicted that commercial real estate interest rates will rise in the near term.

56% of deals were retail, 24% industrial, and 20% office. Hurricane Ian destroyed hotels and canceled bookings, he said, and recovery will be slow. Mr. Thibaut said we must welcome the “new, exciting developments that will come” as Fort Myers Beach and other areas are rebuilt. “Don’t fight new.”

He said Lee County proposes 7 million square feet for commercial use. Small support facilities should be prioritized over big facilities. He requested small, multi-tenant rental area.

“The pants are back” in the office, Mr. Thibaut said. “Not every company wants their employees to work remotely.” Offices are returning to occupancy. What’s enough space? he asked. This progresses slowly.

Randy Thibaut said, “Buyers, builders, developers are optimistic. Southwest Florida has only green lights ahead.”

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