Southwest Florida Economy Cools, But Housing and Tourism Show Resilience

Southwest Florida entered late summer with a mix of cooling economic signals and pockets of strength, according to the September 2025 update from Florida Gulf Coast University’s Regional Economic Research Institute.

Jobs & Employment

The region’s unemployment rate reached 4.1% in June, slightly higher than last year’s 3.5%. Job totals dipped in April and May but bounced back in June with 3,200 new positions added. Education, health services, and construction saw job gains, while leisure and hospitality lagged, dropping more than 5% compared to 2024 — a sign that the area’s tourism-driven job base is still recovering from both seasonal slowdowns and past hurricane impacts.

Consumer Spending & Sentiment

Local taxable sales came in at $3.0 billion in May, down 9% from last year. Rising insurance costs and affordability issues are weighing on household budgets, although Florida’s consumer sentiment index held steady at 83.9 in July. Shoppers may be spending more cautiously, but they’re not shutting their wallets altogether.

Tourism Outlook

Despite employment challenges in hospitality, visitors are still coming. Southwest Florida served 4.5 million airline passengers in Q2 2025, a 3% bump from last year. Tourist tax revenues totaled $48.3 million for the first half of the year, up 3% from 2024 but still 22% below 2022 highs. Popular beach towns like Fort Myers Beach, Sanibel, and Captiva remain in recovery mode, with storm damage and rebuilding limiting available rentals.

Housing Market

Housing continues to be a mixed bag. Active listings jumped 26% year-over-year in July, signaling more options for buyers, but inventory slipped 6% compared to June, showing seasonal tightening. Single-family home sales rose 2%, outperforming both state and national trends, even as median prices dipped 4% year-over-year. Importantly, home values remain roughly 40% higher than 2020, preserving strong equity for owners.

Inflation & Costs

The Tampa-St. Pete-Clearwater metro area, a key barometer for Southwest Florida, saw prices climb 3.3% year-over-year, outpacing both the South region (2.3%) and the U.S. average (2.7%). Tariffs and rising material costs have pushed construction and renovation expenses up 10–15%, squeezing both builders and buyers.

Bottom Line

Southwest Florida’s economy isn’t firing on all cylinders, but housing and tourism remain bright spots. With consumer sentiment steady and job gains in health and construction, the region is holding its ground despite national headwinds and local affordability pressures.