A Leading economist says Florida appears to be primarily sunny

In the months ahead, the US economy might experience a downturn, but in 2024, Florida’s economy will be mostly spared from this storm.

The recessions of 2008–09 and 2020 had a disproportionately negative impact on Florida’s economy; as a result, the Sunshine State, Tampa Bay, or Gulf Coast regions won’t experience the same disastrous effects from a slowing national economy.

Rather, population expansion has provided us with “sandbags” to cushion us, supporting the local economy and reducing the depletion of economic activity that was so detrimental to our region’s economy in those earlier recessions.

Florida’s GDP might contract a little in 2024, but overall growth will be good, according to a recent article by Sean Snaith of The Business Observer.

In light of the general state of the economy, the following four forecasts reflect our expectations for the upcoming year:

A more accommodating job market 

As the year goes on, the labor market will begin to show some signs of improvement, with the unemployment rate gradually rising and some payroll job losses, but not across the board in the economy.

The good news is that the labor market will not experience the terrible harm of those previous recessions and will be in a strong position as we move into this slower growth period.

Problems with inflation 

As 2024 approaches, inflation will continue to decline, albeit slowly at the moment. Therefore, it is improbable that the Federal Reserve Bank will start lowering interest rates until 2025, when the 2% goal inflation rate will undoubtedly be reached.

Increasing real estate expenses

There has been a noticeable slowdown in transactions in the Florida and Tampa Bay real estate markets, but this slowdown has not resulted in a decrease in property values.

An increasing percentage of prospective homeowners are unable to afford the monthly payment required for homeownership due to a combination of high prices, rising mortgage rates, and the homeowners’ insurance fiasco.

Homes for sale continue to be scarce throughout the state, and in the Tampa Bay area, even more so. Although demand has decreased, this shortfall has kept prices from declining. Until 2024 and beyond, the property market will continue to pose a serious threat to the local economy.

Transportation issues 

Our problems with house affordability are linked to another issue facing the area: its transportation system.

In order to solve the issue of housing affordability, a transportation network that can move workers from areas where they can afford housing to places where they are employed is essential. Brightline and other transportation projects constitute only a small portion of it.

Many people believed that the U.S. economy was going into a recession at the beginning of 2023. However, as 2024 gets underway, it appears that the coming year will require some balancing.

The economies of Florida, Tampa Bay, and the Gulf Coast have strong safety nets in place to help reduce damage and “weather the storm” in the event that the national economy falters, which is a genuine possibility.

This article originally appeared on The Business Observer

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