Florida’s Economy Nears Pre-Pandemic Levels but Faces Slower Growth Ahead

Florida’s economy is on track to return to its pre-pandemic strength after experiencing significant expansion in recent years, according to a recent report from Florida TaxWatch, a nonpartisan research institute focused on government accountability.

The organization’s latest economic forecast, which outlines projections through the next five years, highlights Florida’s nearly $1.5 trillion economy, largely driven by tourism, trade, and real estate development. Despite this substantial growth, Florida dropped from the 15th to the 16th largest economy globally. Florida TaxWatch President and CEO Dominic M. Calabro emphasized the need to assess whether the state’s economic momentum can be maintained in the coming years.

However, the report also indicates that economic growth is expected to decelerate through 2030. Florida’s real GDP grew by 3.5% in 2024 but is forecasted to slow to 3% by 2030. Even with this decline, the state’s GDP growth is still projected to outpace the national rate, which is expected to reach 2.4% in 2025 and drop to 1.9% by 2029, according to a recent article by Elizabeth King of Business Observer.

Key Economic Trends

Florida TaxWatch also examined various economic indicators, including population trends, unemployment, income growth, and tourism. Some notable findings include:

• Population Growth: Florida’s population is expected to continue rising but at a slower pace. In 2024, approximately 982 people moved to the state daily, translating to a 1.6% growth rate. By 2030, daily migration is projected to drop to 789 people, with the growth rate declining to 1.1%. Many of those leaving Florida are relocating to Georgia, Texas, or North Carolina.

• Unemployment: The state’s jobless rate is anticipated to increase slightly over the next few years, rising from 3.5% in 2024 to 3.8% in 2025 and 3.9% in 2026. It is expected to remain at that level until 2029 before dipping slightly to 3.7%. Despite this uptick, Florida’s unemployment rate is still forecasted to stay below the national average.

• Income Growth: In 2024, Florida’s income growth stood at 4.9%, trailing the national average of 5.4%. Over the next five years, income growth rates for both Florida and the U.S. are expected to align, with personal income projected to increase by 4.5% in 2025 before gradually slowing to 4.1% by 2029.

• Tourism: The state’s tourism industry, which generates $359 million daily, is poised for continued expansion. Visitor numbers are expected to reach 156.5 million in 2025 and climb to nearly 186 million by 2030. The sector directly supports 2.1 million jobs and contributes $76.4 billion in wages annually.

Maintaining Economic Stability

Although Florida entered 2024 with strong economic momentum, Florida TaxWatch Executive Vice President and General Counsel Jeff Kottkamp underscored the importance of continuously monitoring economic trends and adjusting government spending accordingly.

With growth expected to moderate over the next several years, the report highlights the need for strategic planning to ensure the state’s long-term economic health.

This article originally appeared on Business Observer.

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